War Risk Monitor

When geography
becomes a market force.

Wars move markets through a handful of physical channels — oil, shipping lanes, food, chips. This page tracks the physical reality (tankers actually moving through the world's chokepoints) against the financial reaction (the oil price), flags divergences between the two, and explains each theater's transmission into your portfolio.

Physical Flows vs Price

Daily tanker transits through the Middle-East export corridor (AIS-observed, IMF PortWatch) against Brent. When these two disagree, one of them is wrong.

Chokepoint Monitor

14-day average tanker transits vs each strait's own pre-war norm (the last calm period before its conflict — see Method). Falling flows at a war theater = disruption; rising flows around the Cape of Good Hope = ships paying to avoid one.

The Theaters

What each conflict actually touches, how it reaches markets, and what the playbook has historically been in each direction.

War & Geopolitics Wire

Latest conflict-related headlines from world and maritime feeds, filtered for market-relevant risk.

Method & honest caveats

How this page computes what it shows — and where it can be wrong.

Educational tool, not financial advice. Conflict situations are exactly where markets are least predictable. Everything here describes historical patterns and current public data — both can fail precisely when it matters most.